Science Earthquake Prediction

[peppermillrick]

So, basically, your prediction was wrong.

Yes. Absolutely. Nothing more than an eerie coincidence that there was a 1.1 magnitude earthquake at the exact time (5:07:26 PM Pacific) and place (4 km (2 miles) N of Verdi-Mogul, NV.) and depth (The hypocentral depth is 0 km (0.0 miles) of the prediction. This was not the Great Reno Quake. We continue praying this event will never happen. Remain skeptical.

[SimonC]

What is your methodology for predicting earthquakes?

[ZERO]

To be honest, it is not even an "eerie coincidence". There are scores of minor 'quakes in that region everyday.

[peppermillrick]

Here is a complete listing of quakes in California and Nevada. I counted 25 earthquakes in the last 24 hours from 5:07 PM Pacific today backwards listed with the location of Reno or Verdi/Mogul or one earthquake in every hour. I did have a one in sixty chance of getting the time to the minute right based on that activity (although some were predicting the small quakes would decline). From an odds standpoint, that was eerie to me. I am usually not that lucky. But I did bet Eight Belles across the board (win, place, show) at my local casino. Ultimately, she was not that lucky either and neither are the homeowners in the Mogul Somerset area:

List of earthquakes in California and Nevada

For the record, my prediction for the Great Reno Quake was wrong. But I believe there is a 17% chance of a 6 or 7 Magnitude shallow quake in the Reno area sometime in the next seven days. The continuing small quakes remains troublesome and very unusual for this area.

Remain skeptical. No one can predict big earthquakes with precise accuracy. I proved that. The 1.1 quake at 5:07 PM was just a coincidence.

[ZERO]

Earthquake prediction is well worth pursuing even though no accurate system has yet been found. The potential to save lives with a timely warning is attractive but a high degree of accuracy is needed before this can be done.

You seem to be using astronomical alignment (syzygy) to make predictions.
How do you narrow down the area and predict magnitude?

[peppermillrick]

Where we are coming from with our earthquake predictions:

Jim Berkland ("the man who predicts earthquakes") at http://www.syzygyjob.com/index.php?o...id=94&Itemid=2
predicts:

The Seismic Window of May 4-11, 2008 is based upon the New Moon of May 5th, and the very close perigee just 15 hours later. This Perigean Spring tide is one of only four this year and the Golden Gate maximum daily range in tides will be twice normal (8.6 ft. on May 7). I am 80% confident that one or more quakes will hit during this window with the following parameters:

(1) 3.5-6.5M within 140 miles (2 degrees) of Mt. Diablo (37.9N; 121.9W).

(2) 3.5-6.5M within 140 miles of Los Angeles (34.0N; 118.0W).

(3) 3.3-6.3M with an epicentral address of Washington or Oregon.

(4) 7.0+M major event globally, most likely within the Pacific Ring of Fire, where 80% of the world’s strongest quakes occur annually. (Currently we have had 5 of the expected 16.)

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Based on the above prediction, and the many and continuing small quakes that we are seeing in the Mogul Somerset area and the unusual nature of the quakes and the shallow depths its only safe to assume that the probability of a destructive earthquake in the next few days in the Reno area is high. The small quakes are not going away.

The United States has seen one extremely destructive earthquake somewhere in the continental United States every 100 years or so. In 1700 it was in the Seattle area (Mag 8.7 – 9.2), in 1812 we had the New Madrid quake (Mag 8) and in 1906 it was the San Francisco earthquake (Mag 7.7). One can argue that we are due now for another "100 year super destructive quake" in the continental United States. Right now Reno sure looks like a strong candidate for that quake. If you believe Jim Berkand's prediction above and keep seeing these small quakes here in Reno continuing you got to believe there is a much higher than usual chance of a 6 or 7 Mag quake in the next seven days. What makes the Mogul/Somerset earthquake sequence troubling is that its unusual and the quakes are at a shallow depth, almost right under downtown Reno.

People in Reno have taken down pictures and objects that could fall off the walls. Small cracks in the walls have turned into big cracks. Pressure that has been built up for centuries is being released now. You don't have to be a geologist or statistician to know something is up here. Call it a gut feeling but it is not just me, in fact some people in the new homes in the Somerset area are now sleeping somewhere else. That sense of pending doom is heavy in the air.

[Cuddles]

From an odds standpoint, that was eerie to me. I am usually not that lucky.

Eerie? Lucky? I thought you were pretending to make scientific predictions, not making random guesses and hoping to get lucky. If you actually believed this crap, why would you see anything eerie about getting a prediction right? Aside from the fact that you didn't actually get it right.

[peppermillrick]

I wasn't "pretending" to do anything. Stay skeptical.

[ryan]

Hi all,

I had a dream about people on roofs and water everywhere beneath some houses a month before I took a flight to Thailand this year, then a week into my holiday the Burma flood happened, now that's a bit wierd !

I kept mentioning the dream to my wife two days before it happened while we were staying in North Thailand, and she said I was being silly.

Then a couple of nights later all the dogs in the village kept barking, they barked from night till morning and I turned to my wife and said that there might be a future earthquake in the area.

Well the earthquake happened in China a day after we had just got back to England, now that's a bit spooky.

[bobdezon]

These images may have been ingrained in your psyche from seeing the katrina footage, or perhaps from reading something. I fail to see the spookiness of this, as large areas of the planet flood quite regularly.

[ZERO]

Hi all,

I had a dream about people on roofs and water everywhere beneath some houses a month before I took a flight to Thailand this year, then a week into my holiday the Burma flood happened, now that's a bit wierd !

I kept mentioning the dream to my wife two days before it happened while we were staying in North Thailand, and she said I was being silly.

You had a dream about a flood in a tropical country that has a rainy season and is prone to cyclones?
Not much of a coincidence.

Then a couple of nights later all the dogs in the village kept barking, they barked from night till morning and I turned to my wife and said that there might be a future earthquake in the area.

Well the earthquake happened in China a day after we had just got back to England,

That's quite a big area you are taking into account.

now that's a bit spooky.

No, it isn't really.

[renoguy]

that peppermillrick guy claims he predicted an earthquake to the minute....bs...he didn't predict crap. you cant predict an earthquake to the exact minute if its caused by natural forces. however, if the earthquake is caused by intelligent beings on a predetermined schedule, that is a different story.

near where the many earthquakes occurred in the Reno, Nevada area there is a mountain called Peavine mountain. there is a huge undergound base there that was used for the repair and testing of unworldy propulsion systems. the power released by these tests created the earthquake activity.

this peppermill rick had access to the testing schedule. the test went off as scheduled but it did not achieve full power. that is why the earthquake predicted at that exact minute was not as big as predicted. this guy implied that he had predictive powers. it was all bs.

as soon as the testing was done the earthquake activity ceased. the base is still there but inactive. as far as we know there is no repair activities going on now at the underground base, however one of the entrances have been covered up. our dogs seem to go nuts when we visit the now covered up entrance but we think there is antother entrance to the secret base on Peavine Mountain.

this is a great site to reveal lies and bs....keep up the good work.

[NorthernSoul]

blah blah blah blah

I think you're a little confused.

[Matt]

this is a great site to reveal lies and bs....keep up the good work.

Ahem...