Science Earthquake Prediction

[Richter]

If you are interested about science earthquake prediction,
please open here:

http://earthquake.hit.bg

Thank you.

[Mongrel]

Any chance of a translation?

All I'm seeing is pictures of newspapers in a language I can't comprehend

[bindeweede]

Any chance of a translation?

All I'm seeing is pictures of newspapers in a language I can't comprehend

It will be interesting to see if these predictions come true.

Bulgaria, Sofia-Blagoevgrad-Petrich-Kurdjali-Velingrad2nd of April4Greece-Southern10th of April4,5Greece-Crete,Neapolis28th of April4,6Greece-Crete9,13th of May4,5Greece-Crete25,26,27th of May4,6Turkey-Izmir16,17th of March4,4Turkey:Lat=36,61 & Long=30,9612th of Apri4,8Turkey-Tepekoy, Torbali20th of April5,2Turkey-Tunceli5th of May5Egypt-Cairo(11-12th) of August5,4Egypt8th of September4,6Mexico

In fact, there was supposed to have been one in Bulgaria a few days ago. Must do a bit of checking up.

http://earthquake.hit.bg/

[bindeweede]

Ah, Mr Richter also predicted an earthquake in January. Didn't happen, it seems.

There will be an earthquake on the 10th of january 2008 near Blagoevgrad with magnitude M3,2.South from Sofia-80km.
Not earthquake on the 10th of January 2008.I am sorry.

The next forecast: 17th(18th) of January 2008, Strajitca or Blagoevgrad.
Mr. Putin, WELCOME in Bulgaria.

http://www.infoeq.it/forum/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=139

[SKIRRID5]

I assume the title of the thread is clumsy English for "scientific earthquake prediction". Rather than apologies, I'd like to see an explanation of the scientific method used, please. Preferably without the use of the words energy, vibrations or quantum.

[MischiefMonkey]

I assume the title of the thread is clumsy English for "scientific earthquake prediction". Rather than apologies, I'd like to see an explanation of the scientific method used, please. Preferably without the use of the words energy, vibrations or quantum.

Ta-da!!

THE MOON MAKE THE TIDES IN THE OCEANS, RAISING THE WATER. BUT THE MOON MOVE UP THE EARTH CRUST. IN THIS MOMENT THE MOON CREATE THE EARTHQUAKE. WE MUST KNOW WHAT ARE THE COORDINATIONS OF THE MAXIMUM RAISING OF THE EARTH CRUST AND THE WATER IN THE OCEANS.

You just need to scroll down after the non-English stuff.

[ZERO]

Hmmm.
If he is basing his predictions on the idea that the moons tidal influence on the earths crust can trigger 'quakes, he might be on to something.
I can't see why, on at least some occasions, this effect could not trip a fault that is at snapping point.

Without thinking about it too much, I guess the best time for this to happen would be during a new moon when the sun and the moon are both on the same side of the earth and exert the maximum pull.

At any rate, I think this would happen in only a small percentage of earthquakes.

[dashwood]

my cat predicted the last earthquake we had, he meeaued until we fed him, three months later we had the earthquake.???

[peppermillrick]

Our earthquake prediction for the Great Reno Quake:

Sunday, May 4, 2008, 5:07 PM Pacific Time

Magnitude 7.2

Epicenter in the Mogul/Somerset area, very shallow quake, damage to Reno area.

Map of Recent Earthquakes in Nevada and California

List of Recent Earthquakes in Nevada and California

http://thenextpresidentvisitsnevada.blogspot.com/

[ZERO]

This date is very close to when the sun and moon exert the maximum pull on the earth. New moon is on May 5.

A lot of earthquakes in that area, 1050 in the last week.

[Mulder]

Our earthquake prediction for the Great Reno Quake:...

Can you tell us your method of earthquake prediction please?

[ZERO]

If you look at this map:
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/

you will see it is a very active (or highly monitored) region. Certainly inreases the chance of success, though a 7.2 'quake is not too common and that is a specific value to predict.

I am very interested in this and would like to echo Mulder's question on the prediction method.

[peppermillrick]

Jim Berkland ("the man who predicts earthquakes") at http://www.syzygyjob.com/index.php?o...id=94&Itemid=2
predicts:

The Seismic Window of May 4-11, 2008 is based upon the New Moon of May 5th, and the very close perigee just 15 hours later. This Perigean Spring tide is one of only four this year and the Golden Gate maximum daily range in tides will be twice normal (8.6 ft. on May 7). I am 80% confident that one or more quakes will hit during this window with the following parameters:

(1) 3.5-6.5M within 140 miles (2 degrees) of Mt. Diablo (37.9N; 121.9W).

(2) 3.5-6.5M within 140 miles of Los Angeles (34.0N; 118.0W).

(3) 3.3-6.3M with an epicentral address of Washington or Oregon.

(4) 7.0+M major event globally, most likely within the Pacific Ring of Fire, where 80% of the world’s strongest quakes occur annually. (Currently we have had 5 of the expected 16.)

---------

My prediction of a 7.2 earthquake in Reno on May 4, 2008 around 5 PM Pacific is at best a guess in the The Seismic Window of May 4-11, 2008 for an area having high and unusual seismic activity. If I am close in my prediction, it would be similar to winning the lottery. But the odds are higher now of a major quake in Reno than ever before in recorded history.

[peppermillrick]

Our prediction:

Sunday, May 4, 2008, 5:07 PM Pacific Time
Magnitude 7.2
Epicenter in the Mogul/Somerset area, very shallow quake, damage to Reno area.

Results of our prediction: We had a quake at 5:07:26 PM Pacific near the location specified and it was a shallow quake. However it was not the big one we were expecting. It was of a magnitude of 1.1 instead of 7.2. Here is the link to verify the quake at 5:07 PM Pacific:

http://quake.wr.usgs.gov/recenteqs/Quakes/nn00244080.html

Recent Earthquakes in Nevada and California

Here is what they are saying as of 5:30 PM Pacific (preliminary report):

A microearthquake occurred at 5:07:26 PM (PDT) on Sunday, May 4, 2008. The magnitude 1.1 event occurred 4 km (2 miles) N of Verdi-Mogul, NV. The hypocentral depth is 0 km (0.0 miles).

[SimonC]

Our prediction:

Sunday, May 4, 2008, 5:07 PM Pacific Time
Magnitude 7.2
Epicenter in the Mogul/Somerset area, very shallow quake, damage to Reno area.

Results of our prediction: We had a quake at 5:07:26 PM Pacific near the location specified and it was a shallow quake. However it was not the big one we were expecting. It was of a magnitude of 1.1 instead of 7.2.

So, basically, your prediction was wrong.