Global Warming or natural climatic rhythm?

[Ginger Rogers]

Do you think this unnaturally hot (for the UK) weather is the product of Global Warming or just due to a natural rise and fall in climatic conditions.
Wasn't it really hot back in 1976 as well?

I mean can we ever really affect the climate through our actions or is mother nature having a laugh at us for thinking us mere little people can ever affect the weather and climate

[Aardvark]

I think that this is a great question. How do we know what a natural cylce is. At most we have accurate temperiture and climate records going back perhaps 150 years. How does this snapshot compare to the life of the planet.

Do our geological and geobiological records have the ability to pick out trends over 50 year periods or less.

I remember some darned hot summers as a kid, 1976 was the year I took my O levels and that was a hot one, but there were hotter ones in the 60's

[Mongrel]

I can't find the exact figure right now but I think we've got a fairly good idea for a couple of thousand years thanks to dendrochronology (http://www.tree-ring.co.uk/Tree-ring%20Dating_files/Tree-Ring%20Dating.htm) and while the ice core method may not be as accurate yearly it's still able to give us trends over 160,000 years (source (http://www.elmhurst.edu/~chm/vchembook/globalwarmA.html)).

[Nettles]

We do have a very good idea from things like dendrochronology and historical accounts. Based on historical data, in the UK we're only just bouncing back from the Little Ice Age to where the climate was in the Middle Ages. More recently, there was a dip in temperature about fifty years ago, and there has been a rise since. The average temperature of Europe in general has only just broken where it was in 1945.

The idea that warming is a Bad Thing comes from computer modelling and analysis of global climate in various time frames rather than from historical analysis of temperatures on our little island.

[Admin]

Go back 700-900 years ago and the climate in the UK was around 2oC warmer than it is today; as was most of northern Europe.

It coincided with with great wealth and prosperity and it's the time when most of the great cathedrals were built.

Even if the climate has warmed slightly in the recent past it is still within normal fluctuation.

There's some good reading here: http://www.john-daly.com/hockey/hockey.htm

I think the climate may be warming but there's no reason to think it's down to human activity and there's no reason to think that warming will be catastrophic. In fact, with knowing that our climate has been warmer in the past and has been beneficial, I see much of this climate change propaganda as scaremongering. ???

I'm not convinced of any of it - although I acknowledge that I'm not as well read on the subject as I would like to be.

[vbloke]

One thing we should be looking at is if the Maunder Minimum hypothesis is correct, then the next solar cycle should produce warmer weather, as it's predicted to be a highly active one.

The one after has been predicted to be a quiet cycle, so we may see temperatures drop by 2024.

http://edgcm.columbia.edu/outreach/showcase/maunder_minimum.html
and
http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml

[Nettles]

Daly's a bit off base on citing the London Frost Fairs as evidence of cooler climate per se. An important exogenous factor was the way that piers of the nineteen arches of Old London Bridge acted as a dam, turning the Thames from the Monument to Teddington into a semi-tidal artificial lake.

Small point.

[markb777]

but not as hot as this...

http://homepages.ihug.co.nz/~bgmark_quik/truck1.jpg