The regressive fallacy

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John Jackson © UK-Skeptics

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This fallacy is committed when the natural fluctuations around an average position are not taken into account when providing explanations of events.

Regression or “regression to the mean (or average)” refers to the tendency of a variable characteristic to move away from extreme values towards the average value.

The weather is a good example of this tendency. Occasionally in the UK we get some very nice weather. It is, however, far from average and soon returns to its normal gloomy self. Likewise with excessive rain. We occasionally get excessive rainfall, but it soon returns to its normal value. Most of the time the weather is average and these unusual occurrences are fluctuations or deviations around the average. We get peaks and troughs but things always return back to their normal or average values. (more…)